February 15, 2025 — Recent observations have identified asteroid 2024 YR4 as a near-Earth object with a potential collision course, raising concerns due to its possible impact on regions including India.
Asteroid Overview
Discovered on December 27, 2024, by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile, 2024 YR4 measures approximately 130 to 300 feet in diameter. Current estimates suggest a 2.3% probability of the asteroid impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, a significant increase from the initial 1.2% assessment.
Potential Impact Zones
If a collision occurs, projections indicate that the asteroid could affect areas spanning the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, which includes India. The exact impact location remains uncertain and will depend on the asteroid’s trajectory as it approaches Earth.
Implications for India
Given India’s inclusion in the potential impact corridor, authorities are closely monitoring the situation. An impact of this magnitude could result in significant regional devastation, especially if it were to strike a densely populated area. The energy release from such an event is estimated to be between 8 to 10 megatons, comparable to 500 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
Ongoing Monitoring and Mitigation Efforts
International space agencies, including NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), are actively tracking 2024 YR4. Efforts involve ground-based telescopes and space-based observatories like the James Webb Space Telescope to refine the asteroid’s orbit and impact probability. The asteroid currently holds a Torino scale rating of 3, indicating a potential threat that warrants careful monitoring.
While the probability of impact remains low, continuous observations are essential. Should the risk persist or increase, planetary defense strategies, such as kinetic impactor missions to alter the asteroid’s trajectory, may be considered. The international community remains vigilant, aiming to ensure timely and effective responses to any potential threats posed by near-Earth objects.